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In other words, they determine their spending levels at a given time with a view toward the long-term needs over their life cycles, by comparing the economic resources available—i.e., wealth accumulated to date, expected earned income before retirement, post-retirement pension income, and expected other income such as gifts and bequests—and their remaining life expectancy.A reform of the pension system should be considered under this framework. And on that basis, we must empirically examine what types of individuals are most likely to be at risk of undersaving on a lifetime basis. A major characteristic of the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR) is its questionnaire which asks respondents not only about their present economic situation (income, consumption, assets) and employment status, but also their (planned) retirement age, (planned) starting age for receiving pension, the amounts of gifts and bequests they have received or given (expect to receive or give), and their perceived life expectancy (survival probability). Only after obtaining all of these data on individuals can we quantitatively analyze their financial plans and the role of pensions as a source of income.According to an analysis by Professor John Karl Sholz of the University of Wisconsin and others using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), over 80% of the surveyed individuals in their 50s have accumulated more wealth than their optimal targets. They also found that the wealth deficit of the remaining 20%—those having less wealth than their optimal targets—is generally small. In Japan, our simple calculation using data from the JSTAR found that while the median total wealth at death is estimated to be about 10 million yen, only 10%-20% of the surveyed are expected to be in net debt at the time of death. To put it allegorically, there are more ants than grasshoppers. Meanwhile, in a joint research with Professor Takashi Oshio of Hitotsubashi University, we analyzed individuals' choices of the timing to claim their pension benefits. Our findings suggest that people are more likely to choose to claim reduced pension benefits before reaching full retirement age when their subjective survival probabilities are relatively low or if they are under liquidity constraint. Going forward, we will examine changes that would have to be made to lifetime wealth management plans resulting from possible changes in the amount of pension benefits.Without this kind of empirical research findings or datasets, successful social security policies cannot be developed. The income replacement ratio—which is calculated as the percentage of the amount paid in pensions to retirees to the amount of income earned by the working generation—is often referred to in the policy debate. However, discussing such figures alone will not produce an effective reform plan. We must first get an accurate, data-based picture of the role of pensions in individuals' lifetime wealth management plans in discussing an ideal social security system.>> Original text in Japanese* Translated by RIETI from the original Japanese "Yasashii Keizaigaku" column in the September 16, 2011 issue of Nihon Keizai Shimbun. September 16, 2011 Print Article(s) by this author Future of Japan's Long-term Care Insurance Program September 2, 2013［RIETI Report］ Future of Japan's Long-term Care Insurance Program July 30, 2013［Column］ More Research of Price Expectations Needed Now: Essential in enabling Japan to end deflation May 18, 2010［Newspapers & Magazines］ Probing the Issue of Health Disparities: High correlation with income and education - Policies based on the premise of homogeneity should be reconsidered September 8, 2009［Newspapers & Magazines］ Bank Recapitalization in the West - Lessons from Japan February 4, 2009［Newspapers & Magazines］ Articles Column Special Series Newspapers & Magazines FY2024 FY2023 FY2022 FY2021 FY2020 FY2019 FY2018 FY2017 FY2016 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011 Social Security as Viewed through Micro-data FY2010 FY2009 FY2008 FY2007 FY2006 FY2005 FY2004 FY2003 FY2002 Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal Communications Newsletter RSS Feed Facebook X YouTube Research Areas Research Programs (FY2024-2028) Research Programs (FY2020-2023) Research Programs (FY2016-2019) Research Programs (FY2011-2015) Policy Research Domains (FY2006-2010) Projects Survey Fellows Research/Policy Papers Discussion Papers (English) Discussion Papers (Japanese) Policy Discussion Papers (English) Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) Technical Papers (English) Technical Papers (Japanese) Non Technical Summaries List of Articles in Journals Research Digest Discussion Papers Search Publications RIETI Books (English) RIETI Books (Japanese) History of Japan's Trade and Industry Policy Authors' Words Other Publications (English) Other Publications (Japanese) Events Symposiums Workshops BBL Seminars Archived Seminar Series Data JIP Database R-JIP Database CIP Database Industry-Specific Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators JSTAR RIETI-TID RIETI FDI Database ICPA Project Links Articles Column Special Series Newspapers & Magazines Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal (METI Journal) About RIETI Privacy Policy Site Policy Site Map Help Contact METI Web Site Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, IAA (JCN 6010005005426)JCN: Japan Corporate Number Opinions expressed or implied on this website are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).Titles, numbers, specific names, etc. on this website are as of the date of publication. 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