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Where does this dichotomy originate from? The biggest objective of this symposium is to sort out and clarify this issue. For example, when one argues that the pension system is falling apart, one would expect a concrete measure and logic behind to make that assertion; one needs some kind of a common measure supported by a theoretical framework. For instance, how should one measure the financial sustainability or collapse of a pension system under the 2004 reform? There are several distinguishing characteristics in the 2004 reform, not seen in previous ones. First, a ceiling on the pension contribution rate is set at 18.3% which has been kept on the rise. Second, the income replacement rate of benefits will be reduced by the use of the newly introduced macroeconomic slide mechanism (This mechanism will restrain the rate of increase of pension benefits by taking into consideration the declining number of the working labor force and the possible further extension of life expectancy, thereby keeping the total amount of pension benefits compatible with the decreasing population and slower GDP growth rate in the long-run.). Third, the pension reserve fund will be drawn down, and fourth, the national government subsidy to the basic pension will be raised from the current one-third to one half. As a result, the pension contributions paid will equal the benefits received by generations born in 1980 and after, at least for model households (where the husband is affiliated with the Employee's Pension for 40 years, and with a fulltime housewife), when using the increase rate in per-capita wage as discount rate. At the same time, the net pension liability (defined as: past liabilities -- accumulated reserve fund; past liabilities refer to the amount of pension benefits which matches hitherto-made contributions) of as much as JPY 570 trillion (105% of GDP) causes incessant debates, and provides a strong basis for the "pension collapse" theory. In a situation where the aforementioned benefit/contribution ratio is maintained at 1 (unity) for younger generations, what is happening to this net pension liability? This is another issue that we would like to clarify through this symposium. The polarization of the assessment of the 2004 pension reform may be attributable to the fact that the basic principles on which a public pension system should be based have become blurred and increasingly more difficult to understand. As a matter of fact, Japan's pension system designed during the earlier periods were based on rather optimistic socio-economic expectations for the future. Subsequent successive reforms have been attempted to adapt it to the changing socio-economic conditions, and as a result, its basic principles, especially with regard to the social "insurance" principle (i.e., exactly matching future benefits with contrubutions paid for longevity risks) distinguished from the tax-financed "income redistribution" principle have become difficult to comprehend. The sustainability of a pension system relies heavily on the trust of the citizens in it. Therefore, it should not be overlooked that the series of changes and reforms of the pension system have blurred its basic principles, and tend to unnecessarily confuse debates on the pension reforms. Establishing clearer and more transparent principles should make further necessary reforms and discussions more constructive. This RIETI symposium is based on the presentation of interim research results of RIETI's social security projects. Japanese and overseas economists specialized in social security issues jointly evaluate the 2004 reform from the perspective of the principles. The symposium will thus prove insights to the direction of future reforms, and will concretely identify the major issues to be resolved in the near future. Information Dates, Times: Thursday, December 15, 2005; 9:30-17:45 Friday, December 16, 2005; 9:15-11:50 Venue: Golden Room, 11th Floor, Keidanren Kaikan (1-9-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo) Language: Japanese / English (with simultaneous interpretation) Charge: ¥2,000 (an official receipt will be issued) (Student discount ¥1,000. Please present your student ID at the reception desk.) Hosts: Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Contact: RIETI Tomoko Kase (Ms.), (Tel: 03-3501-8398) * Streaming video footage of and handouts pertaining to the symposium will be available for downloading from the RIETI website after the event.* Purpose of Use of Images Agenda [December 15th, 2005] 9:30-17:45 Conference Chair: NAKATA Daigo (Fellow, RIETI) 9:30-9:40 Opening Remarks: YOSHITOMI Masaru (President and CRO, RIETI) 9:40-11:05 Session 1: "Evaluating the 2004 Reform and Identifying the Remaining Issues" Session Chair: NOGUCHI Haruko (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Science, Toyo Eiwa University) 9:40-10:20 Presentation "The Basic Questions on the 2004 Pension Reforms in Japan" - KOSHIRO Kazutoshi (Emeritus Professor, Yokohama National University / Vice-Chair of the Pension Council of the Social Security Deliberation Council, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2002-2004)) 10:20-10:35 Comments Olivia S. MITCHELL (Professor of Insurance & Risk Management, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, U.S.) 10:35-10:50 Comments Ole SETTERGREN (Director of the Department of Pensions, Swedish Social Insurance Agency, Sweden) 10:50-11:05 Q&A 11:05-12:30 Session 2: "Establishing Clear Principles to Promote Further Pension Reforms in Japan" Session Chair: KUROSAWA Masako (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) 11:05-11:45 Presentation "Enhancing the Financial Sustainability on a Basis of Clear Principles" - FUKAO Mitsuhiro (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor, Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University) - KANEKO Yoshihiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Director, Department of Empirical Social Security Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 11:45-12:00 Comments Olivia S. MITCHELL (Professor of Insurance & Risk Management, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, U.S.) 12:00-12:15 Comments Ole SETTERGREN (Director of the Department of Pensions, Swedish Social Insurance Agency, Sweden) 12:15-12:30 Q&A 12:30-13:30 Lunch 13:30-14:55 Session 3: "Learning from Pension Reforms in Foreign Countries" Session Chair: SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Associate Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University) 13:30-14:10 Presentation "Learning from Pension Reforms in Foreign Countries - Sweden" - Ole SETTERGREN (Director of the Department of Pensions, Swedish Social Insurance Agency, Sweden) 14:10-14:25 Comments YAMAZAKI Nobuhiko (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Director, Actuarial Affairs Division, Pension Bureau, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW)) 14:25-14:40 Comments John PIGGOTT (Professor, The University of New South Wales, Australia) 14:40-14:55 Q&A 14:55-15:10 Coffee Break 15:10-17:45 Session 4: "Impact of the 2004 Reform on Employment and the Reality of the Japanese Elderly" Session Chair: KANEKO Yoshihiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Director, Department of Empirical Social Security Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 15:10-15:50 Presentation "What Further Reforms of the Pension System Can Promote the Labor Force Participation of the Elderly in Japan?" (Tentative) - HIGUCHI Yoshio (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor, Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University) - KUROSAWA Masako (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) 15:50-16:05 Comments OHASHI Isao (Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University) 16:05-16:20 Q&A 16:20-17:00 Presentation "The Reality of the Elderly Viewed from Preliminary Data" - ICHIMURA Hidehiko (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor of Graduate School in Economics, Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo) - SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Associate Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University) - NOGUCHI Haruko (Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Science, Toyo Eiwa University) 17:00-17:15 Comments TAKEISHI Emiko (Head Senior Analyst, Social Development Research Group, NLI Research Institute) 17:15-17:30 Comments Olivia S. MITCHELL (Professor of Insurance & Risk Management, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, U.S.) 17:30-17:45 Q&A 18:00-19:30 Dinner Reception (Buffet) (at Pearl Room, Keidanren Kaikan) Agenda [December 16th, 2005] 9:15-11:50 9:15-11:45 Recapitulative Panel Discussion: "Establishing New Principles for Further Reforms of the Japanese Pension System" Session Chair: YOSHITOMI Masaru (President and CRO, RIETI) 9:30-10:50 Panel Discussion - KANEKO Yoshihiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Director, Department of Empirical Social Security Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) - TACHIBANAKI Toshiaki (Faculty Fellow and Research Counselor, RIETI / Professor, Graduate School of Economics and Faculty of Economics, Kyoto University) - ASO Yoshibumi (Professor, Faculty of Law, Keio University) - Olivia S. MITCHELL (Professor, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, U.S.) - YAMAZAKI Nobuhiko (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Director, Actuarial Affairs Division, Pension Bureau, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW)) 11:45-11:50 Closing Remarks: OIKAWA Kozo (Chairman, RIETI) * The agenda is subject to change. 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